Supply and demand!
Farmers, economies, and national exports all understand how important supply an demand is and can be. In 2021-early 2022, the huge agricultural economy of the USA did well in producing record crops, especially crops such as Cotton, fibers and then the grain crops always come in with good productivity in the Great Plains and some other sectors of the USA. Last year our cotton farm in October looked wonderful, we were quietly counting how many bales per acre we would make. Our crop was fantastic.
On one of the non irrigated "dryland" farms. We could smell the profits for the year coming.
As October and November came, we enjoyed the cotton blooms. They gave us hope for new profits and increases in value of our farmland.
Those blooms gave us more hope for the future crop, like having little babies!
Our little Shitzu dog ran up the turn rows and got a surprise harvest of stickers, that took us an hour to remove. See if you can find her face and the sticker on the tip of her nose. She doesn't like to go visit the "cotton fields any more" because the surprises can be painful.
But we had other surprises in 2021-early22. An early frost hit us and knocked 60% to 70% of our projected yield down. And so, that is how farming goes.
But as one of the world's largest producers of Cotton, we always look for trends that may give us some idea of "what comes next year". In 2022-23 we are studying the world's needs, the supply and demand impacts. In 2022-early 2023, experts say the world needs 124.2 million bales of cotton to meet world wide demand. That would be a new world record of production. We were near this in 2005-6, but remember, there are 1.3 billion more people on earth now than there was in 2005-6. Humans need clothes. In 2020 COVID shut down many cotton mills, some farmers decided not to grow cotton. In 2011 the world was able to grow 124 million bales, and this may have been because of higher prices for cotton. But now, China has reduced the amount of cotton it grows by reducing capacity. So in pure studies of potential supply and demand, there is reason to be optimistic about cotton prices in 2022-23. People need clothing. Cotton is a marvelous light weight and comfortable material.
FARMERS ARE SEEING COMMODITY PRICES RISE WITH INFLATION, THIS MAY LEAD TO MORE PROFITS FROM GOOD PRODUCERS.
Consider this. The world has suffered to see the crash of the Afghanistan economy, and the destruction of the Ukraine economy at the hands of Russian invasion and aggression. Both nations had previously had good agricultural products they could consume and sell on world markets. Now, those two economies are suffering. India is worried about economic growth, as it competes with China, and therefore has been talking more to Russia. Russia has lost a fortune because of it's warlike policies and is eager to find ways to repair and recover the huge costs of "expansionary wars". Those warlike trends of Mr. Putin and the Taliban must be as painful as the stickers on my little dogs face.
Perhaps it is the farmers of the world, who will come to the rescue of nations that encourage and support expanded agricultural efforts. Idea...instead of dropping bombs...plant crops! Just a thought to chew on.
Love our farmers...they are a stable foundation for our economy!
Ben B. Boothe, Author, City Slicker, Commercial Appraiser (and farm owner).