Economists Predict Recession (YIELD CURVE TRENDS)


We at Global Perspectives have been seeing more and more attention and predictions relating the the "yield curve spread."  Normally, short-term interest rates are low and long-term interest rates much higher. But now (July 2018), short-term interest rates are very near long-term rates. As the gray bar lines (recession periods) in this chart show, a recession has almost always followed a period when these two rates are so close. This study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is worth your attention. Our credit goes to the Federal Reserve Bank Economists, Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens, who have done this excellent research.