Residential Real Estate Analysis

1. The economy and housing are improving.
2. The “Senior Space” has upside.
3. Be bullish on real estate long term.

Housing Market Conditions

The recovery is gaining momentum. Excess supply is being sold while new construction has been minimal over the last five years. Job growth is rising, and housing vacancies are being filled. The next step is for demand to exceed supply. Then, rents and home prices will rise. Construction will return to normal, which in turn will accelerate job growth.

Job growth and housing permits are already booming in some cities. Job growth in Austin tripled and housing permits doubled in 2012 compared to 2011. In Phoenix, job losses in 2011 turned to job gains in 2012 while housing permits doubled. In Orlando, jobs grew in both 2011 and 2012 while housing permits doubled.

In 2012, prices rose the most in the following markets:

New home sales rose 2.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000 units from a rate of 444,000 units in March. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were 29% higher than April 2012. At the current sales pace, there is a 4.1-month supply of new homes on the market.

Retail sales rose 0.2% for the week ending May 18, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index. On a year-over-year basis, retailers saw sales increase 3.1%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending May 17 fell 9.8%. Purchase volume fell 3%. Refinancing applications decreased 12%.

Gold plunged recently to its lowest level in over two years. This reflected all kinds of commodities.

There were explanations including “China’s poor economy”, “Japan’s monetary-policy” , Cyprus planning to sell it’s gold and the rising American Stock-Market.

Gold for June delivery, lost over $140 an ounce to trade well below $1,400, and dropped 5% earlier. Gold is 29% below its record high in September 2011.

Spot-gold, which is for April delivery, also tumbled -- dropping $140.40, or 9.3%, to settle at $1,360.60. That was the biggest drop since Jan. 22, 1980.

China:The world's second-biggest economy grew at a 7.7% annual rate, which was weaker than the 8% most economists were expecting.

Japan’s weak Yen has driven thousands to sell their gold.

Other metals including silver, copper and platinum were also weaker, and oil lost more than 3%.

Related: New markets milestones in sight

Investors have been making more money in stocks, abandoning gold as equity markets in the

United States are at all-time highs.

Last week investors sold $1 billion out of the SPDR Gold ETF. So far this year, they've pulled nearly $10 billion out of the $55 billion fund.

Goldman-Sachs and Deutsche Bank both downgraded their forecasts for gold prices, mainly because the U.S. economy appears to be in recovery.

By EnergyBurrito Reprinted with permission

These are interesting times. GUNS AND ECONOMIC TRENDS

GUN OWNERSHIP:

Ethan Boothe and Swamp Monkey

The gun controversy brings up deep-rooted cultural differences. I have studied and thought and spoken to people throughout the nation. I have yet to find an elected politician who says they want to "take sports guns" or personal weapons from us. They, as do a vast majority of Americans, think that "military type assault weapons,machine guns and sniper rifles" should be monitored with preference for the police and our soldiers use. Now if that is what the American people want, and what most politicians want, what is the problem, this is a democracy isn't it? The problem, is as usual, a few radical ideologues.